Estimates of DTC Demographics
Tina Lasisi, Stella BooydeGraaff
2025-02-10 16:06:30
Last updated: 2025-02-10
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Introduction : Direct-to-Consumer Database Statistics
In this analysis, we present our estimates regarding direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing databases. Our approach consists of three main components:
We use published data from 23andMe as a foundation to estimate the proportions of African Americans (or Black Americans) and European Americans (or White Americans) in DTC databases. These proportions form the basis for our subsequent analyses. We studied the genetic ancestry of 5,269 self-described African Americans, 8,663 Latinos, and 148,789 European Americans who are 23andMe customers.
We compile and present data on major DTC companies, including their reported database sizes and policies on law enforcement accessibility. This information helps us estimate the total size of DTC databases and the portion that might be accessible to law enforcement, which is crucial for the analyses in our manuscript.
Finally, we synthesize this information to estimate the number and proportion of African Americans and European Americans represented across all DTC databases, as well as those accessible to law enforcement.
Data Sources
Our analysis draws on several key sources:
Bryc et al. (2014) and Zhang et al. (2024): These studies utilized 23andMe databases and provide information on the self-identified ethnic and racial groups of participants.
Tung et al. (2011) “Characteristics of an Online Consumer Genetic Research Cohort”: This poster, presented at the 2011 American Society of Human Genetics (ASHG) meeting by 23andMe representatives, forms the basis for our assumption of 80% European American representation in DTC databases. We use this assumption to calibrate relative proportions of other demographic groups.
Publicly available information from DTC companies regarding their database sizes and law enforcement access policies.
By combining these sources, we aim to provide a comprehensive overview of the demographic composition of DTC genetic databases and their potential implications for genetic research and forensic applications.
Direct-to-Consumer Databases Demographics
Here is the data from Bryc et al. and Zhang et al., estimating the self-identified ethnic and racial groups of participants in the 23andMe database.
| Source | Ethnicity | Number_of_Customers | Total | Proportion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryc2014 | European American | 148789 | 162721 | 91.438106 |
| Bryc2014 | African American | 5269 | 162721 | 3.238058 |
| Bryc2014 | Latino | 8663 | 162721 | 5.323836 |
| Source | Ethnicity | Number_of_Customers | Total | Proportion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zhang2024 | European American | 2050678 | 2612044 | 78.5085550 |
| Zhang2024 | African American | 98618 | 2612044 | 3.7755107 |
| Zhang2024 | Latino | 355660 | 2612044 | 13.6161565 |
| Zhang2024 | East Asian | 84912 | 2612044 | 3.2507875 |
| Zhang2024 | South Asian | 22176 | 2612044 | 0.8489903 |
And below is the U.S. Census Data, estimating totals in these ethnic and racial categories.
| Source | Ethnicity | Number_of_Customers | Total | Proportion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Census2020 | European American | 191697647 | 331449281 | 57.83619 |
| Census2020 | African American | 39940338 | 331449281 | 12.05021 |
| Census2020 | Latino | 62080044 | 331449281 | 18.72988 |
| Census2020 | Other | 37731252 | 331449281 | 11.38372 |
Using the totals from both sources that utilize the data from the 23andMe DTC database, we have calculated ratios of European American to African American and European American to Latino DTC Customers. These ratios display the greater number of European Americans in the database than African Americans or Latinos. For example, for every African American customer, there are approximately 28.24 European American customers based on the Bryc et. al data.
| Source | European American | African American | Latino | EA_AA_Ratio | EA_Latino_Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryc2014 | 148789 | 5269 | 8663 | 28.23857 | 17.175228 |
| Zhang2024 | 2050678 | 98618 | 355660 | 20.79416 | 5.765838 |
Next, we’re creating a calibrated estimate assuming European Americans represent 80% of the samples. This assumption is based on a poster presented at ASHG 2011. We use the ratios from the more recent Zhang 2024 study to estimate the proportions of other ethnicities.
| Ethnicity | Number_of_Customers | Proportion |
|---|---|---|
| European American | 80000.000 | 80.000000 |
| African American | 3847.235 | 3.847235 |
| Latino | 13874.826 | 13.874826 |
| Other | 2277.939 | 2.277939 |
To interpret this data, understand that the estimated number of African American customers make up approximately 3.85% of the total. The following graph displays these calibrated totals alongside our data source totals. It shows that overwhelmingly, across all categories, European Americans make up the majority proportion of DTC customers compared to all other ethnicities and racial categories.
Size and Accessibility of Direct-to-Consumer Databases
Here, we explore the size of each of the six major DTC databases, as well as their Law Enforcement (LE)’s access to each database.
The following bar chart displays both law enforcement accessibility and total numbers for each of the major DTC databases.
The companies that law enforcement can access are FamilyTreeDNA and GEDmatch. FamilyTreeDNA allows users to opt out but have a history of violating their Terms of Service. GEDmatch also sells access to law enforcement and has a history of violating their Terms of Service, but since the law enforcement used this database to find the Golden State Killer in 2018, they have created an opt-in option for sharing data with law enforcement.
The company whose database is open to the public is MyHeritage. Genetic data is not publicly available, but records such as birth, marriage, death, burial, census, military, immigration, yearbooks are. Family sites and certain settings can allow for publicly accessible genetic data as well.
The other Direct-to-Consumer companies are characterized as allowing access to neither law enforcement or the public. Ancestry DNA requires valid legal reasoning to share data with law enforcement. 23andMe has an opt-in option for scientific researcher that 81% of users do. Living DNA shares anonymous data with third parties, and has an opt-in option to share data with researchers, however, they do not sell data to law enforcement unless feel they are legally compelled.
Estimated Ethnic Representation of Direct-to-Consumer Databases
Next, using our calibrated estimates, we approximate the number of individuals from various ethnicities in the total DTC database population and in the law enforcement accessible databases.
| Ethnicity | Number_of_Customers | Proportion | Total_Estimated | LE_Accessible_Estimated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| European American | 80000.000 | 80.000000 | 40000000 | 2560000.00 |
| African American | 3847.235 | 3.847235 | 1923617 | 123111.52 |
| Latino | 13874.826 | 13.874826 | 6937413 | 443994.43 |
| Other | 2277.939 | 2.277939 | 1138970 | 72894.06 |
This graph shows our calibrated totals of the databases by racial category, as well as the number of law enforcement accessible individuals within each category. The percentages below compares the estimated percentage of African Americans accessible to Law Enforcement (70%) to the percentage of European Americans we estimated are accessible to Law Enforcement (64%).
| Ethnicity | LE_Proportion |
|---|---|
| European American | 64 |
| African American | 70 |
To summarize these data, we created a comprehensible table of our findings.
| Data Source | Ethnicity | Count | Proportion (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Census | |||
| U.S. Census | European American | 191,697,647.000 | 57.8361933 |
| U.S. Census | Latino | 62,080,044.000 | 18.7298774 |
| U.S. Census | African American | 39,940,338.000 | 12.0502111 |
| U.S. Census | Other | 37,731,252.000 | 11.3837182 |
| 23andMe Data | |||
| 23andMe (2024) | European American | 2,050,678.000 | 78.5085550 |
| 23andMe (2024) | Latino | 355,660.000 | 13.6161565 |
| 23andMe (2024) | African American | 98,618.000 | 3.7755107 |
| 23andMe (2024) | East Asian | 84,912.000 | 3.2507875 |
| 23andMe (2024) | South Asian | 22,176.000 | 0.8489903 |
| Calibrated Estimate | |||
| Calibrated Estimate | European American | 80,000.000 | 80.0000000 |
| Calibrated Estimate | Latino | 13,874.826 | 13.8748258 |
| Calibrated Estimate | African American | 3,847.235 | 3.8472349 |
| Calibrated Estimate | Other | 2,277.939 | 2.2779393 |
| Estimated Total DTC | |||
| Estimated Total DTC | European American | 40,000,000.000 | 80.0000000 |
| Estimated Total DTC | Latino | 6,937,412.895 | 13.8748258 |
| Estimated Total DTC | African American | 1,923,617.457 | 3.8472349 |
| Estimated Total DTC | Other | 1,138,969.648 | 2.2779393 |
| Estimated LE Accessible | |||
| Estimated LE Accessible | European American | 2,560,000.000 | 80.0000000 |
| Estimated LE Accessible | Latino | 443,994.425 | 13.8748258 |
| Estimated LE Accessible | African American | 123,111.517 | 3.8472349 |
| Estimated LE Accessible | Other | 72,894.057 | 2.2779393 |
| Version | Author | Date |
|---|---|---|
| 9abe202 | Stella-Joy | 2024-10-04 |
Conclusion
Our analysis of direct-to-consumer (DTC) genetic testing databases has revealed several key findings:
- DTC Database Demographics:
- Based on 23andMe data from 2024, we estimate that 80% of DTC database customers are European American, 3.85% are African American, and 13.87% are Latino.
- These proportions differ significantly from the U.S. Census data, indicating an overrepresentation of European Americans and underrepresentation of African Americans in DTC databases.
- These conclusions are drawn from the U.S. Census and the 23andMe Data from the comprehensive table above.
- DTC Database Sizes and Law Enforcement Accessibility:
- The total estimated number of individuals across all analyzed DTC databases is 45,000,000.
- Approximately 7.11% of the total DTC database population, or 3,200,000 individuals, is potentially accessible to law enforcement.
- Estimated Ethnic Representation in DTC Databases:
- In the total DTC database population, we estimate:
- Approximately 36,000,000 European Americans
- Approximately 1,731,255.712 African Americans
- Approximately 6,243,671.605 Latinos
- In the law enforcement accessible portion:
- Approximately 2,560,000 European Americans
- Approximately 123,112 African Americans
- Approximately 443,994 Latinos
- In the total DTC database population, we estimate:
These findings highlight the current demographic landscape of DTC genetic testing databases, revealing important disparities in representation compared to the general U.S. population. The significant size of these databases, combined with the portion accessible to law enforcement, underscores the importance of considering demographic representation in genetic research and forensic applications.
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